2010 10k and 5k rankings

Sometimes it&;s frustrating getting older or being a woman. No matter how hard you try you&;ll never beat the likes of a young lad in the prime of his life. Well now you can. Using some clever statistical trickery I have created a ranking of 10k and 5k times adjusted for age and sex, so now we can see what you&;re time would be if you were a male between  23 and 27.
 
For the 10k, Martin and Martin enjoy a healthy age adjustment and take 4th and 5th place; Jo is top woman at 11th position and Dave Simpson&;s 31:37 can now unarguably be crowned best 10k performance of 2010.
 
In the 5k, a young-age adjustment for Andrew sees him pip Grant (and his old-age adjustment) into 5th; as expected Keith features highly but more surprisingly perhaps Martin and Ian take 3rd and 2nd; Dermot&;s 15:00 however is all-round excellent and makes that the best 5k performance of 2010.
 
If your interested it&;s based on world record times for each age and the ratio of that record against the open world record. I nicked the ratios from a calculator Howard Grubb developed (http://www.howardgrubb.co.uk/athletics/wmalookup06.html) but adjusted womens ratios further so we can compare men and women on the same terms.
 
10k rankings

rank name actual time age adjusted time
1 D Simpson 31:37 36 30:45
2 K Hood 32:11 37 31:05
3 G Wilkie 33:31 42 31:12
4 M Caldwell 39:16 57 32:24
5 M Hulme 40:39 60 32:41
6 D Cummins 33:07 26 33:07
7 C O&;Brien 33:29 30 33:23
8 B Malcolm 37:13 46 33:35
9 B Clark 33:48 29 33:46
10 T Hepburn 41:12 55 34:35
11 J Kirby 39:16 30 34:44
12 G Carr 39:58 35 35:00
13 S O&;Brien 35:13 28 35:12
14 M Anderson 37:29 40 35:25
15 G Fletcher 40:05 48 35:37
16 G McLean 42:41 54 36:07
17 C Roberts 41:07 30 36:23
18 T Ferrington 37:21 34 36:45
19 J Van Den berg 42:16 49 37:15
20 S Johnston 45:02 44 37:17
21 D Patton 37:37 27 37:37
22 D Henderson 42:23 48 37:40
23 D Carr 39:32 37 38:11
24 K Porter 44:59 39 38:40
25 D Ireland 43:01 46 38:50
26 S Williamson 39:04 26 39:04
27 M Malcolm-Smith 43:17 43 39:59
28 S Blair 44:01 45 40:03
29 C Peggie 40:28 29 40:25
30 N Brown 41:30 32 41:10
31 J Williams 45:32 15 42:11
32 E Ritchie 48:56 27 43:18
33 D Colman 45:35 37 44:02
34 J Hogg 54:26 37 47:17
35 S Cavens 1:02:17 48 55:21
36 L Simpson 59:10    
37 R Brockie 47:33    

 
 
5k rankings
 
rank name actual time age adjusted time
1 D Cummins 15:00 26 15:00
2 I Johnston 16:51 46 15:12
3 M Hulme 19:13 60 15:27
4 K Hood 16:00 37 15:27
5 A Christy 16:27 16 15:29
6 G Wilkie 16:33 41 15:31
7 G Gow 17:37 46 15:54
8 B Clark 16:03 29 16:02
9 S Pilkington 16:06 23 16:06
10 N Lamb 16:58 38 16:16
11 T Ferrington 16:39 33 16:27
12 C O&;Brien 16:35 30 16:31
13 J Kirby 18:58 30 16:31
14 B Malcolm 18:20 46 16:33
15 G Carr 19:09 34 16:34
16 M Anderson 17:38 40 16:39
17 S O&;Brien 16:43 28 16:41
18 S Johnston 20:42 45 16:43
19 L Mcnab 21:25 48 16:44
20 M Breen 16:48 24 16:48
21 R Hume 18:59 48 16:52
22 G McLean 20:05 54 17:00
23 K Stewart 19:55 51 17:16
24 D Patton 17:27 26 17:27
25 D Carr 18:12 37 17:35
26 D Henderson 19:59 48 17:45
27 D Law 20:01 48 17:47
28 C Roberts 20:32 30 17:53
29 S Cavens 20:19 48 18:03
30 T Norwood 18:14 32 18:05
31 S Williamson 18:33 26 18:33
32 C Peggie 18:40 30 18:37
33 C Crawford 21:52 12 18:58
34 S Blair 21:00 45 19:06
35 R Paget 22:08 12 19:12
36 J Hogg 25:15 37 21:36
37 R Henderson 25:30 13 22:40
38 A Douglas 15:16    
 
Scott's picture

Nice one Tim. I'm 26 btw. Can

Nice one Tim. I&;m 26 btw.

Can you not write some sort of algorithm that puts an average male runner in his mid twenties at the top of a list?!?!
Timdog's picture

Sorted that out Scott, by

Sorted that out Scott, by unfortunatly doesn&;t make any difference when you&;re in the prime of your life. 
Martin C's picture

Thanks Tim. Growing old seems

Thanks Tim. Growing old seems to be well worth while. I wonder what my results will be like if it ever happens to me?
jkirby's picture

This is great Tim - nice

This is great Tim - nice work. My most recent 10k time doesn&;t seem to be in the power of CAAC though, I&;ve since run 39:16 at the Inverness 10k. Being only 21 years of age though may bring me back down the rankings ;-).
Nick's picture

For extra credit Tim can you

For extra credit Tim can you come up with a way to adjust hill race times so they those of us that prefer the wilds can be compared with flatlanders?
Timdog's picture

Ta, I've corrected a few

Ta, I&;ve corrected a few things so there are some changes to the rankings. Jo you now get top women position.

Nick, I have thought about that one. I would probably need individual pbs for 5/10k and a whole bunch of different hill races to get the hillrace/flat race factor for each person then find mean factor for each race. then see if there&;s a correlation between race factor and the ascent/distance ratio. Something like that.
Olde Carte Horse's picture

you need to work harder than

you need to work harder than before to get back that type  of form Tommy! You are Older, slower and have been injured! Its tuff being olde!wink
Nick's picture

Even age adjusted I've yet to

Even age adjusted I&;ve yet to break 40 minutes. :-( Maybe you shouldn&;t come up with a hill formula Tim, as at least on the hills no one can tell how slow you are.